Holiday Boom for Some, Blues for Others: Lasting Investing Implications for 2017

11/30/-1  Author: Dr. JoAnne Feeney, PM

We continue to see solid gains in the economy and markets overall, although the devil’s always in the details. The consumer is still leading the way, but new macro policies coming out of the incoming Trump Administration should reinforce many of the trends we see in place. Finding safe places to invest in 2017 has grown more challenging following the sharp run-up following the Trump win and we see significant Read More...

Turning the Fed Battleship

12/19/16  Author: Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer

The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but also projected three rate hikes in 2017, an increase from two previously. Investors were caught by surprise, but should not have been. Indeed, we think that more than three hikes could come in 2017, if the Fed is as data dependent as they claim. The point must also be made that an expansionary fiscal policy is Read More...

Not The Time To Chase Certain Investments

12/12/16  Author: Stephen Zurilla, CFA, PM

Following the U.S. election, equities have hit all-time highs as U.S. stock indices price in stronger growth in the U.S. economy and potential policy shifts that would benefit corporate bottom lines. The “reflation trade” that has benefitted stocks has been accompanied by an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, damaging many “safe” fixed income portfolios. The ten year treasury rate is now higher than where we began 2016, and could move Read More...

Want Growth? Trump Likely to Minimize Immigration Controls and Stick to Freer Trade

12/06/16  Author: Dr. JoAnne Feeney, PM

News from the incoming Trump administration last week, particularly the proposed appointments of Wilbur Ross as commerce secretary and Steven Mnuchin for treasury, augment our expectations of a more business-friendly environment. A lower corporate income tax rate, a tax holiday on repatriation of profits held abroad, fewer regulations, and a boost in infrastructure spending would all help accelerate economic growth, as we have discussed over the past few weeks. These Read More...

An Investment Plan for the Next Four Years

11/28/16  Author: Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer

Some of the key objectives of the incoming Trump Administration are beginning to become clear, so it is now possible to outline the basis for an investment strategy going forward. Government spending is likely to rise and incentives will be provided for infrastructure and investment spending, all of which should enhance growth prospects. Significant deregulation is also likely. However, such changes should increase labor market scarcity and inflation. Investment portfolios Read More...

Is the Rout in the Bond Market Over?

11/21/16  Author: Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer

Lots of comments suggest that the plunge in bond prices is too much, too fast. According to this view, investors have acted pre-emptively in direct response to Trump’s victory and are already building substantial expectations for infrastructure spending, defense spending, household and corporate tax cuts, wiping out the estate tax, and deregulation that will stoke investment and consumer spending all without a single specific legislative proposal, nor any sense of Read More...

Some Deeper Thoughts for Policy Under Trump

11/14/16  Author: Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer

The equity market rallied and the bond market declined, both sharply, in anticipation of the kind of policy changes now considered possible or likely under a Trump Administration. It remains our judgment that equities remain very attractive and bonds highly unattractive, despite their sharp gains and losses, respectively. We think both markets have further to go. Republican majorities in the House and Senate provide considerable potential for new policy directions Read More...

What Now? A Look at How Markets and Sectors Reacted to the Trump Victory.

11/09/16  Author: David Lieberman, PM

The election shocker from last night is likely to have a broad reaching impact on various sectors, and the market is attempting to forecast the impact from these changes. Here are our thoughts on various sectors and potential policies. What we know: Stock Market It looked initially like the market was going to decline very sharply with Dow futures last night down over 800 points at one point, but the Read More...

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